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	<title>Michael Halassa | Michael Halassa | Psychiatry</title>
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	<title>Michael Halassa | Michael Halassa | Psychiatry</title>
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		<title>Why I Tell My Patients &#8220;I Don&#8217;t Know&#8221;</title>
		<link>https://michaelhalassa.com/idontknow/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[michaelhalassa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2026 22:41:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Healthcare]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mental health treatment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Halassa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Psychiatry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mental health]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[patient care]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://michaelhalassa.com/?p=822</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[https://michaelhalassa.substack.com/p/why-i-tell-my-patients-i-dont-know Medical training teaches us to project confidence, offer quick diagnoses, and provide clear explanations. Patients come seeking answers, and there’s real pressure to have them ready. But psychiatry lives in uncertainty. We&#8217;re trying to understand how our most complex organ system goes awry using tools that are still remarkably crude. We lack the brain [&#8230;]]]></description>
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<div class="post-header" role="region" aria-label="Post header">https://michaelhalassa.substack.com/p/why-i-tell-my-patients-i-dont-know</div>
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<p>Medical training teaches us to project confidence, offer quick diagnoses, and provide clear explanations. Patients come seeking answers, and there’s real pressure to have them ready.</p>
<p>But psychiatry lives in uncertainty. We&#8217;re trying to understand how our most complex organ system goes awry using tools that are still remarkably crude. We lack the brain equivalent of a chest X-ray, an EKG, or blood tests for kidney and liver function.</p>
<p>So I find myself saying &#8220;I don&#8217;t know&#8221; fairly often. And when I do, something interesting happens: patients engage more deeply in their own care, and they feel less burdened by false expectations.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">Doctor, What’s my Diagnosis?</h2>
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<p>Psychiatric diagnosis is messy. The DSM looks authoritative, but anyone who uses it clinically knows how artificial those boundaries can be. For example, ruling out manic symptoms in what appears to be a mood disorder may not be straightforward because for many reasons including simple misunderstanding of what is being asked.</p>
<p>So… in certain situations, when patients ask &#8220;What exactly is my diagnosis?&#8221; I&#8217;ve learned to say: &#8220;I don&#8217;t know for certain right now, but here&#8217;s what I&#8217;m considering and why.&#8221;</p>
<p>Then I walk them through my reasoning. I explain that some psychiatric diagnoses require pattern recognition over time, and that cross-sectional snapshots can be misleading. This honesty opens up space for collaboration, and we become partners trying to figure out what&#8217;s happening together.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">Are you sure this is the right medication for me?</h2>
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<p>That same openness applies when we discuss medication management.</p>
<p>It’s a question I hear often: “Will this medication work for me?” Sometimes it’s helpful to cite studies and response rates. But in many cases, saying “I don’t know if this is the right medication for you, but I have a plan if it’s not” sets the right tone.</p>
<p>It shifts the conversation. Instead of setting up false expectations, we&#8217;re starting a collaborative process. The patient knows we&#8217;re learning together, which makes them more likely to give honest feedback about effects and side effects.</p>
<p>When a medication doesn&#8217;t work, there&#8217;s no sense of failure or broken promises. There&#8217;s just information. Valuable information that helps us understand their particular brain&#8217;s coalition of systems and move toward something more effective.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">What is causing this?</h2>
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<p>The hardest question is often the simplest: &#8220;What&#8217;s going on with my brain?&#8221;</p>
<p>Some clinicians launch into explanations about neurotransmitters and chemical imbalances; what medical training teaches us to say. But, as I&#8217;ve <a href="https://michaelhalassa.substack.com/p/the-right-level-of-wrong-why-psychiatric" rel="noopener" target="_blank">written before</a>, that level of explanation rarely connects to behavior or lived experience.</p>
<p>Instead, I use <a href="https://michaelhalassa.substack.com/p/the-self-as-a-coalition-how-the-brains" rel="noopener" target="_blank">the coalition framework</a>. the brain is a coalition of semi-autonomous systems, like apps on a smartphone or subcommittees in a parliament. I might say: “I don’t know exactly what’s happening, but here’s how I think about brains, and let’s figure out together which systems might be struggling.”</p>
<p>Then I explain that their brain is like a coalition of different systems, each optimized for specific tasks. There&#8217;s a system that tracks rewards and motivates behavior. There&#8217;s a system that builds predictions about the world and tries to minimize uncertainty. There&#8217;s an executive system that coordinates between all the others.</p>
<p>This gives us a framework to understand symptoms without pretending to know more than we do. Someone experiencing depression might have a reward system that&#8217;s become pessimistic about future outcomes, while their prediction system remains stuck on negative expectations. Someone with anxiety might have an uncertainty-monitoring system that&#8217;s become hypersensitive.</p>
<p>While not the definitive explanations patients may be used to hearing, they&#8217;re working hypotheses that connect to experience and suggest intervention strategies.</p>
<p>This applies to patients who may ask about “mechanism”, and I&#8217;ve learned to be honest about the limits of our knowledge while still offering useful frameworks.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">The Therapeutic Power of Uncertainty</h2>
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<p>Something counterintuitive happens when you admit uncertainty: patients relax. The pressure to have all the answers immediately disappears. Instead of feeling like failures when initial treatments don&#8217;t work perfectly, they become curious collaborators.</p>
<p>“I don’t know yet,” followed by “but here’s how we’ll figure it out,” creates a different kind of therapeutic relationship; one built on genuine partnership, not expert authority.</p>
<p>I am absolutely not advocating for abandoning expertise. I still bring my training, knowledge of research, and clinical experience to every interaction. But I hold that expertise as hypotheses to be tested rather than certainties to be proclaimed.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">Making Space for Learning</h2>
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<p>The coalition framework helps here too. I can explain that just as their brain is learning and adapting, our understanding of their specific brain is also evolving. Each medication trial, each therapy session, each mood tracking entry gives us more information about how their particular systems respond.</p>
<p>Sometimes the reward system responds quickly to interventions. Sometimes the prediction system needs more time and different approaches. Sometimes the executive system needs strengthening before other interventions can be effective.</p>
<p>This framing makes treatment feel less like a series of failures when things don&#8217;t work immediately, and more like a systematic exploration of their brain&#8217;s unique coalition of systems.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">The Practice Transformation</h2>
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<p>Saying &#8220;I don&#8217;t know&#8221; more often has made me a better psychiatrist. It&#8217;s made my patients more engaged in their care. It&#8217;s reduced the pressure I felt to have immediate answers to enormously complex questions.</p>
<p>Most importantly, it&#8217;s created space for the kind of honest collaboration that actually helps people get better. When patients trust that I&#8217;ll tell them what I don&#8217;t know, they also trust what I do know.</p>
<p>The three words haven’t made my job easier, but they’ve made it more honest. And in a field where so much remains uncertain, honesty might be the most therapeutic thing we can offer.</p>
<p>Understanding starts with truth. And sometimes, the most powerful thing we can say, clinician or patient, is: <em>“I don’t know yet, but let’s figure it out together.”</em></p>
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		<title>Substance-Induced Psychosis: When Learning Algorithms Distort Reality</title>
		<link>https://michaelhalassa.com/substanceinducedpsychosis/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[michaelhalassa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Sep 2025 20:15:17 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[ADHD medication and psychosis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Algorithmic psychiatry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chronic stimulant use]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Computational psychiatry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Distributed neural systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dopamine and psychosis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Healthcare]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mental health treatment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Halassa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictive systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Psychiatry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reward-seeking systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stimulant side effects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stimulant-induced psychosis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Algorithmic Psychiatry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Halassa Lab]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mental health]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://michaelhalassa.com/?p=816</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Understanding psychiatric symptoms as biased algorithms rather than chemical imbalances opens new therapeutic possibilities. Instead of treating medication and therapy as separate interventions targeting different domains, we can recognize them as complementary approaches working on the same computational substrate. Pharmacological interventions like cholinergic modulation help restore healthy distributional properties in the circuits that generate confidence estimates. Therapeutic interventions help retrain these same constraint satisfaction algorithms to process confidence information more appropriately. Both target the algorithmic dysfunction that generates pathological beliefs.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 class="header-anchor-post">The Portal in the Basement</h2>
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<div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA">The EMTs who brought Stephanie to the inpatient unit looked genuinely unsettled. She&#8217;d been found at 3 AM, methodically photographing her neighbors&#8217; houses with her phone, documenting what she described as &#8220;dimensional breach points.&#8221;</div>
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<p>&#8220;There&#8217;s a portal to a different galaxy in the Johnsons&#8217; basement,&#8221; she emphatically explained to me the next morning. &#8220;They&#8217;ve been in contact with an advanced civilization for months. I have over a thousand photos documenting the evidence.&#8221;</p>
<p>Stephanie was 58, a senior vice president at a medium-sized company. She had no previous psychiatric hospitalizations and no major mental illness in her family. She&#8217;d been successfully managing ADHD with stimulants for thirty years. I wondered what had changed to bring on psychotic symptoms all of a sudden.</p>
<p>Her son filled in the details when I called him. &#8220;She&#8217;s been working insane hours since the new product launch six months ago. Said she needed to stay sharp, couldn&#8217;t afford to fall behind. I think she was taking way more Adderall than prescribed, but she insisted her doctor had increased it.&#8221;</p>
<p>The medical record told a different story. Her last psychiatry appointment was eight months ago. Her stimulant prescription hadn&#8217;t changed in two years.</p>
<p>Three weeks into her admission, completely off stimulants, Stephanie still believed in the portal. Importantly, we had done a thorough rule out of psychosis secondary to autoimmune and neurological entities. Nonetheless, Stephanie had developed an elaborate cosmological theory involving interdimensional communication protocols and galactic surveillance networks.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">The Persistence Problem</h2>
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<div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA">According to DSM-5-TR criteria, substance-induced psychotic disorder should resolve when the substance clears. The hallmark feature distinguishing it from primary psychotic disorders is temporal relationship: symptoms emerge during intoxication or withdrawal and disappear during sustained sobriety.</div>
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<p>But Stephanie wasn&#8217;t following the script. Her psychotic symptoms had crystallized into a stable, internally consistent belief system that persisted weeks after stimulant discontinuation. She wasn&#8217;t alone in this persistence.</p>
<p>Large epidemiological studies suggest that 10-25% of substance-induced psychotic episodes don&#8217;t resolve as expected. Some patients transition to diagnoses like schizophreniform disorder or brief psychotic disorder. Others remain in diagnostic limbo: no longer substance-induced, not quite meeting criteria for primary psychotic disorders.</p>
<p>The conventional explanation focuses on &#8220;unmasking&#8221; underlying vulnerability. The substance supposedly reveals a predisposition that was always there, waiting to emerge. But this explanation feels unsatisfying. Why do some people develop persistent psychosis after chronic stimulant use while others don&#8217;t? What&#8217;s actually changing in the brain during those months or years of escalating use?</p>
<p>Understanding Stephanie&#8217;s case required moving beyond simple neurochemical explanations toward a computational framework that could explain the persistence, internal coherence, and treatment-resistance of her symptoms. Her eventual treatment design incorporated an algorithmic circuit framework, and the response suggested that persistent substance-induced psychosis might represent biased constraint satisfaction algorithms rather than a persistent hyperdopaminergic state. But demonstrating this required understanding how chronic stimulants alter the confidence estimates that feed into updating our models of reality.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">From a Simple Molecular Narrative to the Complexity of Learning in the Brain</h2>
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<div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA">The standard story about stimulant-induced psychosis centers on dopamine. Stimulants block dopamine reuptake, leading to excessive dopamine signaling. This hyperdopaminergic state is what psychosis is. Case closed.</div>
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<p>The idea that excessive dopamine underlies psychotic symptoms is supported by two major pieces of evidence. Neuroimaging of dopamine in the ventral striatum early in psychotic illness reveals excessive release, and traditional antipsychotic efficacy is tied to how well they block dopaminergic signaling. In primary psychotic disorders, the idea is that a hyperdopaminergic state is triggered by an underlying genetic vulnerability, and that environmental stressors can lower the threshold for such vulnerability to be expressed. Stimulant use may be one such environmental stressor. With Stephanie, the age of onset was inconsistent with such an interpretation.</p>
<p>But the bigger issue at stake is this: what does dopamine have to do with thinking in the first place, and how does this molecule actually work in that context?</p>
<p>The prefrontal cortex (PFC) houses our most sophisticated cognitive machinery: neural populations that maintain working memory, simulate future scenarios, and hold the beliefs that guide our decisions. These mental maps form the neural substrate of planning and inference, allowing us to navigate complex environments and make sense of ambiguous information. The prefrontal cortex, like other cortical areas, is composed of 80-85% excitatory neurons that use glutamate to communicate with one another. The remaining 15-20% are inhibitory neurons that perform functions like gating, filtering and normalization of signals transmitted among the excitatory glutamatergic neurons.</p>
<p>The prefrontal cortex engages in metalearning (learning how to learn) by discovering which strategies and representations work across different contexts and tasks. Rather than just memorizing specific stimulus-response patterns, it extracts abstract rules and principles that can be applied to novel situations.</p>
<p>This metalearning happens through self-supervised learning processes, where the PFC uses the inherent structure of experience to generate its own training signals. For example, it might learn to predict future events based on current context, or identify which environmental cues reliably predict important outcomes. These prediction tasks don&#8217;t require external labels: the PFC generates supervisory signals from the temporal structure of experience itself.</p>
<p>What distinguishes the PFC from other cortical areas is its timescale for temporal integration. While sensory areas might integrate information over milliseconds to seconds, the PFC operates over seconds to minutes. This longer temporal window allows it to detect patterns and relationships that unfold across extended behavioral sequences, enabling the extraction of abstract rules that persist across changing contexts.</p>
<p>The PFC maintains extensive connections throughout the brain, but is particularly involved in loops with two subcortical regions: the thalamus and basal ganglia. Recent work, including Wang and colleagues&#8217; influential DeepMind study, suggests that the PFC learns predictive models of the environment, but that changes in its connectivity patterns support metalearning rather than adapting to individual tasks. The way it adapts to individual tasks is by adjusting its activity patterns rapidly, not connectivity slowly. The thalamus appears to be the brain region that sends signals to rapidly adjust PFC activity patterns, helping it adapt its world models to the current environment. The thalamus receives inputs from regions like the cerebellum, critical for motor adaptation, and the hippocampus, which outputs compressed long-term memory episodes.</p>
<p>How does dopamine factor into this picture? Dopamine is expressed by neurons scattered in the midbrain and brainstem, with the midbrain populations most relevant to our discussion. The major success story in systems neuroscience is that dopamine neurons signal reward prediction errors in temporal difference learning algorithms: computing the difference between expected and actual outcomes to drive learning. In the classic formulation, the temporal difference error is δ = r + γV(s&#8217;) &#8211; V(s), where r is the immediate reward, γ is the discount factor, V(s&#8217;) is the predicted value of the next state, and V(s) is the current state&#8217;s value.</p>
<p>The largest concentration of dopamine receptors is in the striatum, the first station of the basal ganglia, where these prediction error signals are expected to adjust value representations encoded by striatal populations. However, two major developments have transformed our understanding of dopamine&#8217;s relationship to thinking and planning.</p>
<p>First, whatever happens in the striatum ultimately impacts the thalamus and then the PFC. Recent evidence suggests that dopamine-driven changes in striatal circuits influence how prefrontal world models get updated through cortico-basal ganglia-thalamic loops. This creates a pathway for reward prediction errors to systematically bias the metalearning processes that maintain our beliefs about reality.</p>
<p>Second, emerging research on distributional reinforcement learning reveals that dopamine neurons don&#8217;t just signal simple prediction errors (basic &#8220;better than expected&#8221; or &#8220;worse than expected&#8221; signals). Instead, they encode the full statistical distribution of possible prediction errors. Think of it like this: instead of just saying &#8220;that was surprising,&#8221; different dopamine neurons maintain different perspectives on what kinds of surprises to expect and how to weight them. Some neurons act as &#8220;optimistic&#8221; predictors that overweight positive prediction errors, while others act as &#8220;pessimistic&#8221; predictors that overweight negative prediction errors. Moreover, individual dopamine neurons encode different discount factors: some optimized for short-term rewards, others for long-term outcomes.</p>
<p>Stimulant use may change several critical aspects of this architecture. First, it could alter how reward prediction errors are computed: the pallidal signals feeding back to the ventral tegmental area (VTA, a midbrain dopamine-producing region) to compute prediction error differences would be acutely altered. This may impact different VTA neurons differently: those with optimistic versus pessimistic biases, and those with short versus long discount factors, could show differential vulnerability to stimulant-induced alterations.</p>
<p>Second, stimulant use may change how quickly striatal systems impact the updating of PFC world models through thalamic loops. If the normal temporal dynamics of this metalearning process are accelerated or biased, the PFC might begin incorporating unreliable distributional information into its predictive models of reality.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a potential mechanistic insight: distributional alterations may not create noisy signals so much as systematically distort the confidence estimates that guide belief updating. In healthy brains, the width of prediction error distributions appears to signal uncertainty. When you encounter something unexpected, wide distributions might tell the system &#8220;be cautious, gather more evidence.&#8221; Narrow distributions could signal high confidence: &#8220;update your beliefs strongly based on this information.&#8221;</p>
<p>Chronic stimulant use might bias this uncertainty signaling by creating artificially narrow distributions around extreme positive prediction errors. The system could receive signals that essentially convey &#8220;high confidence that this unexpected pattern is highly significant.&#8221; This could alter the normal process by which the brain decides how much to update its beliefs based on new evidence.</p>
<p>When patients notice unusual environmental patterns, their altered distributional system might generate high-confidence signals about the significance of these observations. Instead of the appropriate response (&#8220;this might be random, collect more evidence&#8221;), the metalearning algorithms could receive the message &#8220;this is definitely important, build strong beliefs around it.&#8221;</p>
<p>The thalamic gating system, which appears to filter which patterns get promoted to adjust beliefs and plans, likely relies on these confidence estimates to make gating decisions. Altered confidence estimates might cause it to gate spurious patterns as if they were reliable environmental regularities. Once gated into prefrontal circuits, these patterns could become the foundation for elaborate belief systems.</p>
<p>This sets up a crucial question: how does the brain actually construct unified belief systems from these distributed confidence signals? Understanding this process illuminates why Stephanie&#8217;s delusions were so resistant to contradictory evidence.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">The Computational Architecture of Belief Coherence</h2>
<div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent">
<div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA">The persistence of Stephanie&#8217;s delusional beliefs reveals a fundamental computational challenge: how does the brain construct unified models of reality from distributed, potentially contradictory evidence? This problem has been formalized as coherence maximization, a well-studied algorithmic framework that illuminates how biased confidence signals can lead to systematically distorted worldviews.</div>
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<p>Coherence maximization is formally defined as a constraint satisfaction problem, where mental representations either fit together (cohere) via positive constraints or resist fitting together (incohere) via negative constraints. The brain seeks configurations that maximize the satisfaction of these constraints: essentially finding the most internally consistent interpretation of available evidence.</p>
<p>The computational complexity of this process is significant: coherence problems are computationally intractable for large systems, requiring approximation algorithms similar to those used for traveling salesman problems or neural network optimization. This computational challenge explains why specialized neural circuits evolved to handle belief integration.</p>
<p>The brain implements coherence maximization through what computational neuroscientists call active inference: a framework where organisms maintain generative models of their environment and continuously update these models to minimize &#8220;free energy,&#8221; a measure of surprise or model-environment mismatch. Under this framework, beliefs are not passive representations but active hypotheses that guide both perception and action, with the system working to maintain internal consistency while accommodating new evidence.</p>
<p>This algorithmic framework appears in multiple computational domains. The ECHO (Explanatory Coherence by Harmonic Optimization) algorithm, developed for scientific reasoning, uses connectionist networks where propositions are represented as nodes and coherence relationships as weighted connections. The network settles into configurations that maximize overall constraint satisfaction. Modern machine learning systems face similar challenges: large language models must maintain consistency across vast knowledge bases, and this coherence-seeking behavior emerges naturally from their training objectives.</p>
<p>The evolutionary utility of coherence-seeking becomes clear from this computational perspective: organisms that can rapidly construct consistent internal models from fragmentary evidence gain survival advantages through improved prediction and decision-making. However, this same mechanism becomes problematic when the input signals (the confidence estimates about environmental patterns) become systematically biased.</p>
<p>When chronic stimulant use distorts the distributional properties of prediction errors, the coherence maximization system receives corrupted input: patterns that should be flagged as low-confidence noise instead arrive with high-confidence signals demanding explanatory integration. The system treats these spurious patterns as reliable environmental regularities requiring coherent explanation, leading to elaborate belief systems that represent optimal solutions to a fundamentally corrupted constraint satisfaction problem.</p>
<p>This computational framework explains why persistent substance-induced delusions resist simple contradictory evidence. The beliefs aren&#8217;t random false ideas; they&#8217;re optimal coherence solutions given systematically biased confidence inputs. Breaking these belief systems requires restoring the underlying computational processes that generate appropriate confidence estimates in the first place, not just presenting contradictory evidence.</p>
<p>Given this understanding, traditional psychiatric approaches that focus solely on blocking neurotransmitter receptors miss the deeper computational dysfunction.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">Why Single-Receptor Models Miss the Circuit Story</h2>
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<div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA">This algorithmic circuit framework reveals why traditional dopamine-receptor models struggle to explain persistent substance-induced psychosis. The standard approach focuses on blocking D2 receptors with antipsychotics to suppress psychotic symptoms, but this doesn&#8217;t address the underlying computational dysfunction that generates biased belief systems.</div>
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<p>The problem goes beyond &#8220;too much dopamine signaling.&#8221; It&#8217;s systematically altered distributional learning: corrupted confidence estimates that feed into coherence maximization algorithms, leading to elaborate but internally consistent delusional frameworks. These beliefs persist because they represent optimal solutions to a constraint satisfaction problem operating on fundamentally biased inputs.</p>
<p>A purely receptor-based approach treats the neurochemical symptoms rather than the computational dysfunction. Blocking dopamine receptors may reduce the intensity of aberrant signals, but it doesn&#8217;t restore the distributional properties that allow metalearning circuits to distinguish reliable environmental patterns from noise. The coherence maximization system continues operating on the same corrupted confidence estimates, just with dampened intensity.</p>
<p>Understanding how circuits implement distributional learning algorithms and how chronic stimulants systematically bias these implementations suggests more targeted interventions that address the computational roots of persistent delusions rather than just their neurochemical expression.</p>
<p>With this framework in mind, Stephanie&#8217;s treatment required a fundamentally different approach than standard antipsychotic protocols.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">Treatment Through an Algorithmic Circuit Lens</h2>
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<div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA">Understanding Stephanie&#8217;s symptoms through the distributional learning framework suggested we needed a multi-pronged therapeutic approach. The altered prediction error distributions driving her persistent delusions couldn&#8217;t be fixed by simply blocking dopamine receptors. We needed to restore the natural diversity and distributional properties of dopaminergic signaling itself.</div>
</div>
<p>Standard antipsychotics like haloperidol or risperidone work by dampening aberrant dopamine signals in striatal circuits. A 2019 systematic review of six randomized controlled trials found that various antipsychotics (aripiprazole, haloperidol, quetiapine, olanzapine, and risperidone) were all effective at reducing both positive and negative symptoms of amphetamine-induced psychosis. But this dampening approach addresses only part of the distributional learning problem.</p>
<p>The algorithmic framework suggests that successful treatment requires two complementary strategies: first, reduce the impact of biased prediction error signals on coherence maximization circuits; second, restore the capacity for healthy distributional learning by normalizing the statistical properties that generate appropriate confidence estimates.</p>
<p>For the first component, we chose aripiprazole over traditional D2 antagonists. Its partial agonism at dopamine receptors could theoretically provide more nuanced modulation: dampening excessive signals while preserving some baseline dopaminergic function needed for normal distributional learning. The systematic review noted that aripiprazole showed particular effectiveness for negative symptoms, which might reflect its ability to maintain residual dopaminergic signaling rather than completely blocking the system.</p>
<p>But medication alone wouldn&#8217;t restore healthy distributional learning. Stephanie&#8217;s constraint satisfaction algorithms needed to relearn how to process confidence estimates appropriately. This required tackling the underlying cause: her dependence on chronic stimulants that had systematically biased the distributional properties feeding into her coherence maximization system.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">Restoring Distributional Diversity: Replacement and Modulation</h2>
<div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent">
<div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA">The algorithmic circuit framework pointed toward two additional interventions that could help restore normal distributional learning properties.</div>
</div>
<p>First, we needed to address Stephanie&#8217;s underlying ADHD without continuing to bias her prediction error distributions. Wellbutrin (bupropion) offered a promising alternative. Unlike amphetamines, which create massive positive prediction errors through dopamine reuptake blockade, bupropion provides more modest, sustained increases in dopaminergic and noradrenergic signaling. Its mechanism might preserve more natural distributional properties while still providing therapeutic benefit for attention deficits.</p>
<p>The hypothesis here is that Wellbutrin could serve as replacement therapy: providing enough cognitive enhancement to manage her ADHD symptoms while allowing her biased distributional learning circuits to gradually renormalize. Instead of the extreme positive prediction errors from chronic stimulants, she would experience more naturalistic dopaminergic signaling patterns that could support healthy confidence estimation.</p>
<p>Second, we cross-titrated aripiprazole to KarXT, a combination of xanomeline and trospium that targets muscarinic receptors. The algorithmic framework suggests this might work by modulating the inputs to dopaminergic circuits rather than directly blocking dopamine receptors. My early clinical experience with this cholinergic modulation appears to support its efficacy in stimulant-induced psychosis.</p>
<p>Cholinergic signaling plays crucial roles in regulating the context-dependent release of dopamine. By modulating muscarinic receptors, KarXT could potentially help restore more natural patterns of dopaminergic signaling: not by suppressing all dopamine activity, but by helping circuits generate more appropriate distributional responses to environmental inputs.</p>
<p>This represents a fundamentally different therapeutic approach: instead of just dampening aberrant signals, we&#8217;re trying to restore the circuit mechanisms that generate healthy distributional learning in the first place.</p>
<p>But even optimal pharmacological intervention addresses only half the problem. The other half involves helping patients&#8217; constraint satisfaction algorithms relearn how to process confidence information appropriately.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">Circuit Rehabilitation: A Future Direction</h2>
<div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent">
<div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA">Beyond pharmacological interventions, patients with biased constraint satisfaction algorithms may need active rehabilitation. Traditional cognitive behavioral therapy focuses on changing thoughts through rational examination. But persistent delusions aren&#8217;t irrational thoughts; they&#8217;re outputs from coherence maximization systems operating on systematically biased confidence estimates.</div>
</div>
<p>Future therapeutic interventions might look quite different from standard CBT. Rather than challenging the content of delusional beliefs directly, sessions could focus on the process of evidence evaluation itself. Imagine sitting with a patient and working through their observations systematically. Not &#8220;you&#8217;re wrong about the portal&#8221; but &#8220;let&#8217;s think about all the possible explanations for what you noticed.&#8221; What other reasons might account for changes in your neighbor&#8217;s lighting patterns? How confident should we be in each explanation? What additional evidence would help us distinguish between them?</p>
<p>The goal wouldn&#8217;t be to convince patients they&#8217;re wrong. It would be helping their constraint satisfaction algorithms practice processing confidence information appropriately: distinguishing between high-confidence and low-confidence inferences, calibrating degrees of belief to strength of evidence, and maintaining uncertainty when evidence is ambiguous.</p>
<p>Such approaches might reveal that patients&#8217; observations aren&#8217;t entirely false. They may have noticed real environmental patterns. But their biased learning algorithms assign extreme confidence to elaborate explanations when the evidence actually supports much simpler, more probable alternatives.</p>
<p>By systematically examining the distributional properties of evidence (the range of possible explanations and their relative probabilities), therapeutic interventions could potentially help these circuits begin distinguishing signal from noise again.</p>
<h2 class="header-anchor-post">Beyond Chemical Imbalance</h2>
<div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent">
<div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA">Stephanie&#8217;s case illustrates why algorithmic circuit psychiatry offers superior explanatory power to traditional &#8220;chemical imbalance&#8221; models. The chemical imbalance framework struggles to explain key features of her presentation: why her symptoms persisted weeks after stimulant clearance, why her delusions were internally coherent rather than random, and why standard dopamine blockade provided only partial relief.</div>
</div>
<p>The algorithmic framework provides a more comprehensive explanation. Chronic stimulants didn&#8217;t create &#8220;too much dopamine.&#8221; They systematically biased the distributional properties that feed confidence estimates into constraint satisfaction algorithms. Her elaborate interdimensional theory wasn&#8217;t a symptom of broken brain chemistry but an optimal solution to a corrupted computational problem. Traditional antipsychotics dampened the signals but couldn&#8217;t restore the underlying distributional learning processes.</p>
<p>Understanding psychiatric symptoms as biased algorithms rather than chemical imbalances opens new therapeutic possibilities. Instead of treating medication and therapy as separate interventions targeting different domains, we can recognize them as complementary approaches working on the same computational substrate. Pharmacological interventions like cholinergic modulation help restore healthy distributional properties in the circuits that generate confidence estimates. Therapeutic interventions help retrain these same constraint satisfaction algorithms to process confidence information more appropriately. Both target the algorithmic dysfunction that generates pathological beliefs.</p>
<p>Stephanie&#8217;s recovery with cholinergic modulation and stimulant replacement suggests that restoring healthy algorithmic function may be more effective than suppressing aberrant chemistry. The brain implements sophisticated learning algorithms through specific circuit architectures. When we understand how these algorithms can be corrupted and restored, we move beyond the limitations of purely neurochemical approaches toward interventions that address the computational roots of psychiatric dysfunction.</p>
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		<title>Reflections on the 2025 Psychosis Innovation Summit in Boston</title>
		<link>https://michaelhalassa.com/reflections-on-the-2025-psychosis-innovation-summit-in-boston/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[michaelhalassa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jul 2025 21:27:22 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Cobenfy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Algorithmic psychiatry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Computational psychiatry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Distributed neural systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dopamine and psychosis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KarXT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mental health treatment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Halassa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[muscarinic antipsychotic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schizophrenia treatment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xanomeline]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Algorithmic Psychiatry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mental health]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schizophrenia]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://michaelhalassa.com/?p=794</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Michael Halassa reflects on the inaugural innovation in psychosis summit (Boston 2025) ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I had the privilege of attending and in part organizing the inaugural <em>Innovation in Psychosis Therapeutics Summit</em> in Boston (June 9-11, 2025). This intimate gathering brought together scientists, clinicians and biotech leaders who share a common goal: to finally push psychiatric drug discovery into the 21st century by moving beyond existing preclinical models, expand frameworks beyond dopamine and aspire towards biomarkers embracing the digital revolution.</p>
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<p><strong>Day 1: Systems Neuroscience Enters the Room</strong></p>
<p>The summit opened with workshops, one of which I co-organized with Mikhail Kalinichev (Neurosterix Therapeutics, Geneva) and Rouba Kozak (Foundation for the National Institutes of Health). Mikhail brings deep experience from his years at GSK, Lundbeck, and Ipsen, having helped drive clinical development in schizophrenia-related cognitive impairment. Rouba previously led programs developing many neuro/psych relevant compounds with a focus on precision medicine.</p>
<p>Our workshop centered on how systems neuroscience and computational models of circuit dysfunction—what I&#8217;ve called &#8220;algorithmic circuit psychiatry&#8221;—can refine target selection, inform biomarker development, and guide trial design. This perspective has been underrepresented in drug development but is increasingly seen as essential for psychiatric disorders, where symptom clusters often reflect underlying circuit-level failures. See my earlier post <a href="https://michaelhalassa.substack.com/p/introducing-algorithmic-circuit-psychiatry?r=456wp0" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a></p>
<p>A central question emerged: <strong>Should biomarker development occur during phase 1-3 clinical trials, or wait until after drug approval?</strong> The tension reflects the translational challenge in psychiatric drug development. Without predictive biomarkers, clinical trials must balance stringent selection criteria against practical timelines, often leaving drug developers flying blind.</p>
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<p>Left to right: Michael Halassa, Mikhail Kalinichev, Rouba Kozak</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Following our session, Paulo Lizano from BIDMC led a compelling workshop on integrating patient-centered outcomes, such as quality of life measures, directly into clinical trial endpoints. As the field increasingly recognizes that pure symptom scales may not fully capture meaningful change, incorporating functional and experiential outcomes feels both scientifically valid and deeply patient-centered.</p>
<p><strong>Day 2: The Rise of Muscarinic Agents</strong></p>
<p>By the second day, one theme dominated: muscarinic receptor agonism has become the most exciting frontier in schizophrenia drug development.</p>
<p><strong>The KarXT/Cobenfy Story</strong></p>
<p>Steve Paul delivered a masterful keynote tracing the long and improbable road to Cobenfy (xanomeline-trospium), the most important advance in psychosis pharmacotherapy since clozapine. Originally developed as a derivative of arecoline (from betel nut) for Alzheimer’s, xanomeline’s repurposing for psychosis required remarkable translational persistence.</p>
<p>Key highlights from Paul’s talk:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Exceptional CNS penetration</strong>: A 10:1 brain-to-plasma ratio, highly atypical for psychiatric agents.</li>
<li><strong>Side effect complexity</strong>: Pro- and anticholinergic effects drive the need for more selective muscarinic agents.</li>
<li><strong>Domain-specific effects</strong>: Cognitive gains, especially in working memory and executive function, often decouple from standard PANSS reductions.</li>
</ul>
<p>Paul emphasized that head-to-head trials against atypical antipsychotics remain a critical next step.</p>
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<p>Steve Paul being introduced by Murali Gopalakrishnan</p>
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<p>Steve Paul gave an inspiring and forward-looking talk</p>
<p><strong>From Algorithm to $14 Billion</strong></p>
<p>Andrew Miller, one of Karuna&#8217;s original R&amp;D leads, described how 7,410 compound combinations were screened through an algorithm-driven selection process, ultimately resulting in the xanomeline-trospium pairing. Starting with just $4,000 (and critical support from the Wellcome Trust), Karuna’s journey culminated in its $14 billion acquisition by Bristol Myers Squibb—a biotech success story that underscores how unconventional mechanisms can lead to transformative breakthroughs.</p>
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<p>Andrew Miller gave a superb talk about the development of KarXT/Cobenfy</p>
<p><strong>Emerging Themes: Biomarkers, Stratification, and Digital Tools</strong></p>
<p>Throughout the summit, multiple sessions drilled into the next central challenge: <strong>how to stratify patients, measure meaningful improvement, and de-risk clinical development earlier with predictive biomarkers.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Biomarkers: The Missing Link—and what’s up with Emraclidine?</strong></p>
<p>The panel featuring Nick Brandon (Neumora), Hadile Ounallah-Saad (Clexio), Larry Park (AbbVie), and Rob Goldman (MapLight Therapeutics) emphasized that lack of biomarkers has plagued psychiatric drug development for decades. AbbVie made clear they are not abandoning Emraclidine despite Phase II setbacks. They attribute the setback primarily to suboptimal trial design rather than flaws in the compound itself—a refreshingly sophisticated view that acknowledges how heterogeneity, endpoint selection, and sample stratification can easily derail psychiatric trials.</p>
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<p>Right to Left: Nick Brandon (Neumora), Hadile Ounallah-Saad (Clexio), Larry Park (AbbVie), and Rob Goldman (MapLight Therapeutics)</p>
<p>I was particularly happy with the opportunity to discuss <a href="https://michaelhalassa.substack.com/p/the-cobenfy-advance-early-clinical?r=456wp0" rel="noopener" target="_blank">early clinical real-world experience with Cobenfy</a>. Having the people who developed this compound in the same room was surreal!</p>
<p><strong>Digital Interventions for Negative Symptoms</strong></p>
<p>Click Therapeutics showcased their work on digital interventions targeting experiential negative symptoms. Their augmented reality glasses, designed to enhance social salience during simulated interactions, represent a highly innovative, non-pharmacological circuit intervention.</p>
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<p>The wonderful click team</p>
<p>I had particularly rewarding conversations with Click’s CMO, Shaheen Lakhan, about converging digital therapeutics with systems neuroscience. We&#8217;re now collaborating on a forthcoming article about the future of inpatient psychiatry, combining digital augmentation with circuit-level mechanistic frameworks. Stay tuned!</p>
<p><strong>Novel Biology: Retroviruses &amp; Neuroplastogens</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Jonathan Javitt</strong> presented provocative data implicating endogenous retroviral elements (HERV-W-ENV) in schizophrenia pathophysiology—a reminder that viral mechanisms may still yield unexpected insights.</li>
<li><strong>Rajiv Agrawal (Deluxe Therapeutics)</strong> introduced DLX-2270, a neuroplastogen targeting synaptic vesicle protein 2A density. While neuroplasticity-based interventions (e.g., ketamine in depression) have gained traction, their application in psychosis remains early-stage.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Long Acting Injectables (LAIs) and Early Intervention</strong></p>
<p>Hannah Brown delivered an excellent talk on the value of long-acting injectables (LAIs) in first-episode psychosis, referencing mirror-image study designs like PRELAPSE. Reconnecting with Hannah—whom I trained alongside in residency—was a highlight, and her combination of methodological rigor and clinical pragmatism was outstanding.</p>
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<p>Hannah Brown did a masterful job at emphasizing the importance of LAIs</p>
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<p>Was great to connect after 12 years!</p>
<p><strong>The Takeaway: A Field at Inflection Point</strong></p>
<p>The closing day featured Hadile Ounallah-Saad&#8217;s exceptional talk on developing an M1/M4 agonist (CLE-905) with different properties than Xanomeline and one that may not need a peripheral antagonist like trospium! If this ends up panning out in human trials, it will be game-changing and will give us a shot at a muscarinic LAI! Go Clexio!</p>
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<p>Hadile Ounallah-Saad giving a talk about Clexio’s lead compound CLE-905</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>My friend Zhong Zhong, CMO for OVID therapeutics gave a superb talk on KCC2 activators as a potential class of antipsychotic medications. My lab is involved in the preclinical side of this endeavor so we’re all hopeful this will end up having some clinical utility!</p>
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<p>Zhong talking about KCC2 modulators as disease modifying agents in schizophrenia</p>
<p>Throughout the summit, there was palpable energy. After decades of stagnation, the field appears to have finally cracked open. For too long, psychiatric drug development has been stalled by perceived biological intractability and late-stage trial failures where clinical efficacy predicted pre-clinically failed to materialize. But this summit showcased the tools now available to change that trajectory:</p>
<ul>
<li>Systems neuroscience informing target selection</li>
<li>Circuit models guiding conceptual framing</li>
<li>Sophisticated biomarkers enabling patient stratification</li>
<li>Digital augmentation expanding therapeutic options</li>
<li>Novel molecular targets beyond dopamine</li>
</ul>
<p>The muscarinic wave, exemplified by xanomeline, validates that genuinely novel mechanisms can succeed in psychiatry, while also reinforcing that circuit-level understanding must drive future drug development.</p>
<p>For those of us working in systems and circuits, it seems obvious that this is the type of neuroscience that pharma needs. This is but one of several facets of the algorithm circuit framework we have been working on for the last several years.</p>
<p>I left Boston energized and cautiously optimistic that we are witnessing the dawn of psychiatry’s own precision medicine revolution. The science is finally catching up to the clinical complexity. Now we need the discipline, patience, and collaborative ambition to build on this momentum.</p>
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<p><em>This piece reflects my experience co-organizing the Systems Neuroscience workshop at the 2025 Innovation in Psychosis Therapeutics Summit and observations from three days of presentations, panels, and discussions with leading researchers, clinicians, and industry executives.</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Brain&#8217;s Confidence Problem: New Insights into Schizophrenia from an Unexpected Source</title>
		<link>https://michaelhalassa.com/the-brains-confidence-problem-new-insights-into-schizophrenia-from-an-unexpected-source/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[michaelhalassa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jul 2025 07:49:52 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Computational psychiatry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Executive Control]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Halassa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reinforcement learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schizophrenia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cognitive flexibility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Halassa Lab]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MD thalamus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mediodorsal Thalamus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thalamocortical]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://michaelhalassa.com/?p=777</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[New research reveals how brain circuits control belief updating in schizophrenia. Dr. Michael Halassa explores breakthrough findings on delusional thinking, confidence calibration, and potential neuromodulation treatments for psychotic disorders.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As a psychiatrist who treats patients with schizophrenia, I&#8217;ve long been struck by a fundamental puzzle: why do individuals with psychosis hold onto beliefs with such unwavering certainty, even when presented with compelling contradictory evidence? The answer, it turns out, may lie in a marble-sized brain region most people have never heard of—and the revelation comes from an entirely unexpected source.</p>
<h2>When Tremor Treatment Accidentally Illuminates Psychosis</h2>
<p>A groundbreaking study by Mackenzie et al. (2025, bioRxiv) has provided some of the strongest evidence yet for a circuit-level understanding of belief formation and revision. The researchers weren&#8217;t studying schizophrenia at all—they were investigating patients receiving focused ultrasound treatment for essential tremor. But when post-surgical brain swelling accidentally affected the mediodorsal (MD) thalamus, something remarkable happened: patients developed a specific pattern of overconfident decision-making that mirrors core features of delusional thinking.</p>
<p>Using a sophisticated behavioral task that probes how people balance exploiting known information versus exploring new possibilities, the researchers found that MD disruption led to a precise computational deficit: <strong>patients lost their capacity for adaptive doubt</strong>. They became overly confident in their existing beliefs and stopped seeking information that might challenge those beliefs—the very cognitive pattern we see in psychotic disorders.</p>
<h2>The Neurobiology of Certainty Gone Wrong</h2>
<p>This finding connects directly to my clinical experience treating patients with schizophrenia. In my practice, I&#8217;ve observed that the challenge isn&#8217;t simply that patients hold false beliefs—it&#8217;s that they hold beliefs with pathological certainty. The traditional psychiatric focus on the content of delusions may be missing the more fundamental issue: <strong>a breakdown in confidence calibration</strong>.</p>
<p>The MD thalamus appears to act as a critical &#8220;confidence regulator&#8221; in the brain&#8217;s decision-making networks. When functioning normally, it helps determine how much we should trust our own predictions versus remaining open to new information. This circuit-level understanding aligns with emerging theoretical frameworks about how the brain coordinates distributed computations for flexible cognition (Scott et al., 2024).</p>
<p>Consider the implications: if the thalamus normally helps us maintain appropriate uncertainty about our beliefs, then thalamic dysfunction could explain why patients with schizophrenia often exhibit such rigid certainty in their delusional beliefs. They haven&#8217;t simply acquired false information—they&#8217;ve lost the neural capacity to doubt what they think they know.</p>
<h2>From Confidence to Delusions: A Circuit-Based Understanding</h2>
<p>The Mackenzie study reveals something crucial about the computational nature of belief updating. When MD-prefrontal circuits were disrupted, patients didn&#8217;t simply become perseverative or confused. Instead, they showed a specific pattern:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Increased reward sensitivity</strong>: Greater influence of learned values on choices</li>
<li><strong>Eliminated exploration bonus</strong>: Loss of information-seeking behavior</li>
<li><strong>Overexploitation</strong>: Excessive reliance on existing knowledge</li>
<li><strong>Reduced directed exploration</strong>: Failure to investigate uncertain but potentially informative options</li>
</ul>
<p>This behavioral signature maps remarkably well onto what we observe clinically in psychotic disorders. Patients with delusions often show:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Pathological certainty</strong> in false beliefs despite contradictory evidence</li>
<li><strong>Reduced information-seeking</strong> that might challenge their beliefs</li>
<li><strong>Overreliance on internal models</strong> rather than external feedback</li>
<li><strong>Failure to update beliefs</strong> when environmental contingencies change</li>
</ul>
<p>The convergence is striking and suggests we may be looking at the same underlying computational dysfunction from different angles—one measured in the laboratory, the other observed in the clinic.</p>
<h2>The Promise of Circuit-Based Psychiatry</h2>
<p>This research opens exciting possibilities for precision approaches to treating schizophrenia. Rather than the broad neurochemical interventions we currently rely on, we might be able to target specific computational dysfunctions in thalamocortical circuits.</p>
<p>The study&#8217;s anatomical precision is particularly encouraging. The behavioral effects correlated specifically with disruption of the <strong>lateral (parvocellular) MD</strong>, which connects primarily to dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and frontal pole—regions critical for cognitive flexibility and belief updating. This anatomical specificity suggests that focused neuromodulation approaches could potentially restore more adaptive confidence calibration without affecting other brain functions.</p>
<h3>Clinical Implications for Treatment</h3>
<p>In my practice, I&#8217;ve been developing approaches that integrate computational insights with traditional psychiatric care. The MD thalamus findings suggest several potential therapeutic directions:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong> Targeted Neuromodulation</strong>: Technologies like focused ultrasound or deep brain stimulation could potentially modulate MD activity to restore appropriate exploration-exploitation balance.</li>
<li><strong> Confidence Calibration Training</strong>: Cognitive interventions could be designed specifically to help patients develop more accurate metacognitive awareness of their own uncertainty.</li>
<li><strong> Precision Diagnostics</strong>: Computational tasks like the restless bandit could help identify specific cognitive profiles and guide personalized treatment approaches.</li>
<li><strong> Early Intervention</strong>: Understanding confidence miscalibration as a core deficit could lead to earlier detection and intervention before full psychotic episodes develop.</li>
</ol>
<h2>Beyond Schizophrenia: A New Framework for Mental Health</h2>
<p>The implications extend beyond schizophrenia to other conditions where belief updating goes awry:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Depression</strong>: May involve underconfidence leading to learned helplessness</li>
<li><strong>Anxiety disorders</strong>: Could reflect miscalibrated threat assessments</li>
<li><strong>Substance use disorders</strong>: Might involve overconfidence in drug-related beliefs</li>
<li><strong>Obsessive-compulsive disorder</strong>: May reflect inability to achieve confidence in safety</li>
</ul>
<p>This represents a fundamental shift from thinking about psychiatric symptoms as categorical disease states toward understanding them as specific computational dysfunctions in learning and decision-making algorithms.</p>
<h2>The Clinical Reality: From Lab to Bedside</h2>
<p>As someone who treats patients with schizophrenia daily, I&#8217;m acutely aware of the challenges in translating neuroscience findings into clinical practice. However, this study is particularly compelling because it provides <strong>causal evidence</strong> in humans—not just correlational findings from neuroimaging studies.</p>
<p>The patients in the Mackenzie study didn&#8217;t lose their ability to learn or make decisions entirely. They maintained overall task performance while showing specific deficits in belief updating and uncertainty management. This selectivity suggests that interventions targeting MD-prefrontal circuits might improve cognitive flexibility without causing global cognitive impairment.</p>
<h2>Looking Forward: A Personal Perspective</h2>
<p>For me, this research represents something I&#8217;ve been working toward throughout my career: a true bridge between basic neuroscience and clinical psychiatry. The fact that these insights emerged from a completely different clinical context—tremor treatment—underscores how interconnected our understanding of brain function really is.</p>
<p>In my clinical work, I&#8217;ve seen how traditional approaches to schizophrenia, while helpful, often fall short of fully restoring cognitive flexibility and adaptive functioning. Understanding the neural basis of confidence calibration offers hope for more targeted, effective interventions.</p>
<p>The convergence between this human lesion study and years of animal research on thalamic function (including work from our lab and others) gives me confidence that we&#8217;re identifying fundamental principles of brain organization rather than isolated curiosities. When different methodologies and species point toward the same underlying mechanisms, it usually means we&#8217;re onto something important.</p>
<h2>The Road Ahead</h2>
<p>Several critical questions remain:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Reversibility</strong>: Can confidence calibration deficits be restored through targeted interventions?</li>
<li><strong>Early detection</strong>: Could computational tasks identify at-risk individuals before psychotic episodes?</li>
<li><strong>Personalized medicine</strong>: How can we match specific circuit dysfunctions to optimal treatments?</li>
<li><strong>Combination approaches</strong>: How might neuromodulation combine with cognitive and pharmacological interventions?</li>
</ol>
<p>As we move forward, the goal isn&#8217;t to replace current treatments but to enhance them with circuit-based insights. The patients I treat deserve approaches grounded in rigorous understanding of how their brains actually work, not just symptomatic management.</p>
<h2>Conclusion: When Certainty Becomes the Enemy</h2>
<p>The patients in the Mackenzie study teach us something profound about the nature of adaptive cognition: the capacity to doubt ourselves, when doubt is warranted, may be one of our most important mental faculties. When that capacity is lost—whether through thalamic dysfunction, psychiatric illness, or other causes—we become trapped by our own certainty.</p>
<p>This has broader implications beyond psychiatry. In an era of polarization and &#8220;alternative facts,&#8221; understanding the neural basis of belief formation and revision is more important than ever. The same circuits that go awry in schizophrenia may also be involved in more everyday forms of rigid thinking and confirmation bias.</p>
<p>For my patients with schizophrenia, this research offers something precious: hope for treatments based on understanding rather than trial and error. Instead of simply suppressing symptoms with broad-acting medications, we may soon be able to restore the specific cognitive functions—like appropriate confidence calibration—that enable adaptive functioning in a complex, uncertain world.</p>
<p>The brain&#8217;s confidence problem is solvable. And that gives me confidence that better treatments are within reach.</p>
<p><em>This research builds on extensive work linking thalamic circuits to cognitive flexibility and psychiatric disorders, offering new insights into the computational basis of belief updating and its therapeutic implications.</em></p>
<p><strong>References:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Mackenzie, G., et al. (2025). Focused ultrasound neuromodulation of mediodorsal thalamus disrupts decision flexibility during reward learning. bioRxiv.</li>
<li>Scott, D.N., Mukherjee, A., Nassar, M.R., &amp; Halassa, M.M. (2024). Thalamocortical architectures for flexible cognition and efficient learning. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 28(7), 639-652.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>A Blueprint for Algorithmic Psychiatry: Revolutionizing Mental Health Treatment</title>
		<link>https://michaelhalassa.com/a-blueprint-for-algorithmic-psychiatry-revolutionizing-mental-health-treatment/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[michaelhalassa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Sep 2024 03:44:57 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Healthcare]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Halassa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Psychiatry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Algorithmic Psychiatry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mental health]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://michaelhalassa.com/?p=735</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Mental health care has long been dominated by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), a classification system that guides clinicians in diagnosing and treating psychiatric illnesses. While the DSM has provided a standardized approach to understanding mental disorders, it also has its limitations. Psychiatric diagnoses often represent clusters of symptoms rather than [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mental health care has long been dominated by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), a classification system that guides clinicians in diagnosing and treating psychiatric illnesses. While the DSM has provided a standardized approach to understanding mental disorders, it also has its limitations. Psychiatric diagnoses often represent clusters of symptoms rather than underlying mechanisms, leading to treatment approaches that may not address the root causes of mental illness. Enter <strong>algorithmic psychiatry</strong>, a new framework poised to revolutionize the field by focusing on latent computational features and predictive models to enhance treatment response.</p>
<h3>The Traditional DSM-Based Approach: A Quick Overview</h3>
<p>The DSM-based approach relies on categorizing psychiatric disorders into discrete entities based on observable symptoms and patient history. While this method has been instrumental in standardizing diagnoses, it tends to overlook the complex, multidimensional nature of mental illnesses. As a result, treatment options are often generalized and may not be effective for everyone within a diagnostic category. This can lead to trial-and-error prescribing, delayed treatment response, and, in some cases, inadequate care.</p>
<h3>What Is Algorithmic Psychiatry?</h3>
<p>Algorithmic psychiatry represents a paradigm shift in mental health treatment by moving beyond symptom-based diagnoses to focus on the underlying latent computational features of <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/mental-disorders" target="_blank" rel="noopener">psychiatric illnesses.</a> These features are independent constructs that can be targeted more precisely with various interventions, such as pharmacology, therapy, and neurostimulation. The ultimate goal is to put treatment response at the forefront of psychiatric care, using predictive models to guide clinical decisions.</p>
<h3>The Foundation: Latent Computational Features</h3>
<p>At the heart of algorithmic psychiatry is the concept of latent computational features. These are unobservable variables that underlie the observable symptoms of mental illness. Unlike the DSM categories, which group symptoms into broad diagnoses, latent features are more granular and can be more directly linked to specific brain processes, cognitive functions, and behavioral patterns.</p>
<p>For example, instead of diagnosing a patient with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) based solely on their reported symptoms, an algorithmic psychiatry approach might identify specific latent features such as cognitive rigidity, hypervigilance, or impaired emotional regulation. These features can then be targeted with more precise treatments, potentially leading to faster and more effective symptom relief.</p>
<h3>Clinical Interviews and Behavioral Tasks: Building the Model</h3>
<p>The initial identification of latent features can begin with a comprehensive clinical interview, focusing not just on symptomatology but also on cognitive and emotional processes. To augment this, patients can undergo well-controlled behavioral tasks designed to probe specific mental functions. For example, tasks focusing on reasoning might help identify cognitive biases or decision-making impairments, while tasks focusing on emotions could reveal difficulties in emotional regulation or processing.</p>
<p>These behavioral assessments provide the first layer of data that can be fed into predictive models. The goal is to create an initial framework that can guide treatment decisions even before more complex data—such as biological markers or neuroimaging—becomes available.</p>
<h3>Augmenting the Model: The Role of Data</h3>
<p>As more data becomes available, the predictive models in algorithmic psychiatry can be continuously refined. This data can come from a variety of sources, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Biologics:</strong> Genomic, transcriptomic, and proteomic data can provide insights into the molecular underpinnings of mental illness. For example, certain genetic markers might be linked to specific latent features, guiding pharmacological interventions.</li>
<li><strong>Organoids:</strong> These lab-grown mini-brains can model specific neural circuits, offering a window into the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying psychiatric disorders.</li>
<li><strong>Neuroimaging:</strong> Advanced imaging techniques can reveal structural and functional abnormalities in the brain, helping to refine the identification of latent features.</li>
<li><strong>Wearable Technologies:</strong> Devices that track physiological and behavioral data in real-time can offer continuous monitoring of a patient’s mental state, providing a dynamic input to the predictive models.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Predictive Models: The Core of Treatment Decisions</h3>
<p>The predictive models used in algorithmic psychiatry are designed to be dynamic and adaptive. As new data is integrated, the models can adjust, providing increasingly accurate predictions of treatment response. These models prioritize individual variability, ensuring that treatment plans are tailored to each patient’s unique profile of latent features.</p>
<p>For example, a patient with depression might have a model that predicts a higher likelihood of response to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) due to identified features such as cognitive distortions. Another patient with the same DSM diagnosis but different latent features might be predicted to respond better to a combination of pharmacotherapy and <a href="https://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/article/S0025-6196(17)30325-7/fulltext" target="_blank" rel="noopener">neurostimulation.</a></p>
<h3>The Future of Psychiatric Care</h3>
<p>Algorithmic psychiatry has the potential to revolutionize mental health care by making it more personalized, precise, and data-driven. By focusing on latent computational features and utilizing predictive models, this approach aims to optimize treatment response from the outset, reducing the need for trial-and-error prescribing and improving patient outcomes.</p>
<p>As the field evolves, algorithmic psychiatry could also pave the way for the early identification of psychiatric disorders, enabling preventative interventions before full-blown symptoms develop. Moreover, as more data is collected and models become more sophisticated, the hope is that we can move closer to understanding the true nature of mental illness, leading to even more effective treatments.</p>
<h3>Conclusion</h3>
<p>The transition from a DSM-based framework to algorithmic psychiatry represents a bold step forward in the treatment of psychiatric illnesses. By focusing on independent latent computational features and integrating diverse data sources into predictive models, this approach promises to put treatment response at the center of mental health care. As we continue to refine these models and gather more data, the future of psychiatry looks brighter, with the potential for more effective, personalized treatments that address the root causes of mental illness.</p>
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